Category Archives: Conflict

MARRIAGE DEBATE DENOUEMENT NOVEMBER 2017

A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE
In mid-November the results of the Plebiscite will be released to the Australian public who will have little idea of the issues which will swirl around a yes vote. The Government has been derelict in its duty by not informing citizens of problems experienced in other countries which have voted for marriage equality.

Below are details of Anglo-Saxon, principally Judaeo-Christian, nations who have acceded to 21st century Enlightenment:

  • United Kingdom  Pop. 67m, 93.5% heterosexual, 1.5% LGBT. (Office of National Statisics, 2013)
  • Canada  Pop. 35.4m, 97% heterosexual, 3% LGBT,
    0.8% same-sex couples – 72,000. (Statistics Canada, 2017)
  • New Zealand  Pop. 4.7m, 85% heterosexual, 10 -15% LGBT,
    1% same-sex couples. (Statistics NZ, 2013)
  • Australia  Pop. 23.6m, 97% heterosexual, 3% LGBT,
    1% same-sex couples – 48,000. (ABS, 2015)

The relative trans-national support for the LGBT community far exceeds their number within a population. The long-standing Judeo-Christian culture may be an explanation with the guiding principle set down in Matthew 7 – 12:                                                                               “Therefore all things whatsoever ye would that men should do to you,        do ye even so to them: for this is the law and the prophets.”

The rise of militant LGBT, has coincided with the devasting decline in Christian church attendance through the Anglo-Saxon world. Christianity is suffering from a rise of secularism and increasing exclusion of religion in public life. Thus, the verities that influence older Australians, are no longer relevant to younger generations. With the exception of South Africa and Taiwan, the Islamic world, Africa and Asia are not yet in the “fold”.  Religious discipline, primitive taboo and large rural societies have slowed 21st century ‘enlightenment’.

Legal Equality
COUNTRIES WITH LEGAL MARRIAGE EQUALITY (Geoworld.biz)


THE  AFTERMATH
Negative fallout from marriage equality legislation is now becoming alarmingly obvious in the United Kingdom and Canada. Based on this painful social history, it should have been obvious to the Australian parliament that proper debate and protective legislation should have preceded this uninformed and contentious vote on marriage equality.

Set down below, is a summary of festering national sores and much ill-will between the LGBT minority and those still holding to traditional family and faith-based principles. The overarching situation in the United Kingdom and Canada is the increasing pressure on religious institutions, voluntary aid agencies, schools and parents, to embrace and materially support marriage equality legislation. Employment security of independent-minded employees is being threatened. Below is a potpourri of evolving issues:

  • CANADA
  • 52% of Canadians complain the Government is supporting laws restricting freedom of expression.
    (The Conservative,  August 2017)
  • Bill 89, Ontario – ’Supporting Children, Youth and Families’ . This legislates that “unless parents’ and foster parents’ attitude to gender expression, identity and sexual orientation outlook are acceptable, their right to bring up children will be reviewed”. (Blaze, 2017)
  • Children will not be permitted to be raised under the umbrella of a parent’s faith.
  • Bill 13, Ontario – Church leaders must accept the new orthodoxy of the 21st century.
  • In Ontario Province, marriage commissioners can no longer decide who they can marry, pastoral letters of Clergy are vetted by Local Authorities and pressure is being applied to schools to embrace 21st century orthodoxy.
    (Speak Up for Marriage,  August, 2017)
  • UNITED KINGDOM – a litany of evolving disruption.
  • The Equalities Minister, Rt Hon Justine Greening, has announced ‘Churches must keep up with modern attitudes’.
  • Religious parents may face interrogation if homosexuality is not accepted.
  • The High Court recently ruled that a Pentecostal couple were considered ineligible as adoption parents since their attitude on sexual orientation was not appropriate despite their being good parents.
  • Jews, Moslems and Sikhs are no longer considered fit to adopt children.
  • There is a move to bypass medical consultation before a gender change – an official application will be sufficient.
  • Court decisions now stipulate that business owners will be compelled to promote the LGBT cause, irrespective of personal conviction.
  • Employees in Government Departments have been threatened with dismissal for suggesting there are better child outcomes with heterosexual parents.
  • All 62,000 National Trust volunteers must now wear the same sex rainbow badge; those who resist are confined to the ‘back office’.
  • Children three years and above must attend classes on ‘gender fluidity’.
  • OFSTED – National School Regulatory Department  – is codemning successful schools for inadequate promotion of homosexuality and gender orientation.
    (The Spectator 7th September, 2017)
  • In conclusion, the Bow Group Conservative Think Tank, London, has stated that ‘same-sex marriage was promoted by Government as a process of tolerance and equity – it has become a most unequal and intolerant “hydra”, the worst outcome of any political issue in recent history’.
  • NEW ZEALAND
  • Both the Minister for Education and the former Prime Minister have indicated that, after four years of marriage equality, nothing has changed and the process is working well for New Zealand.. (Buzz Feed News & skynews.com,  September, 2017)
  • Since New Zealand has a Bill of Rights, perhaps cultural and religious norms are protected. By contrast, in the United Kingdom and Canada, the rights of the majority are being trampled underfoot by the 2% minority.

THE CRACK OF DOOM
The Australian Government is incompetent and irresponsible by enforcing a Plebisicite without enacting legislation to protect civil and religious interests. It is certain many voters will have no concept of the ramifications of a YES vote and the problems that could eventuate because the Government has failed in its duty of care. Unfortunately, there will be no Heracles to slay this hydra so it is probable that the social disruption in Australia will mirror that of Canada and the United Kingdom.

Hydra
HERACLES SLAYING THE HYDRA (theoi.com, Z26.1B)


The fundamental question is ‘Will marriage equality create a unified Australia – a nation-building ethos that strengthens the moral and social fabric of the Commonwealth?’

May the legislation, yet to be debated truly ‘Advance Australia’.

 

JOHN H HILL
lurgashall@westnet.com.au
Current Affairs Flashpoints
towardsthefinalhour.com

 

THE ROHINGYA – IMPEDIMENT TO DEVELOPMENT November 2017

DOWNSIDE OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT

Gas & Oil
FIG. 1   GAS & OIL PIPELINES FROM RAKHINE TO SW CHINA                               (Shwe Gas. The Conversation)

Much has been written on crimes against the Rohingya people in Rakhine state, Myanmar, but muted are the issues swirling round the genocidal activity of the Myanmar military.                                        Much has been written on the Rohingya refugee camps around Cox’s Bazaar, Bangladesh, but there has barely been mention of refugee concentration camps ringing the oil and gas installations owned by the China National Petroleum Company some 250 km to the south.

The international community has been well informed by vested interests, that military action in northern Rakhine state was due to the attacks on police posts last year by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army who were  fighting to improve the condition of the Rohingya people.  The bottom line of this discussion (mentioned in advance) is that the Rakhine-Yunnan oil & gas pipe lines are indispensable to the Chinese economy. The oil pipe line transfers oil from the Middle East to the east coast industrial regions of China. (The Truth Seeker, UK)

Pipelines
FIG. 2   OIL & GAS PIPELINES FROM RAKHINE TO YUNNAN, CHINA (thetruthseeker.co.uk)

Vindication for this infrastructure is China’s concern for the security of oil supplies from the Middle East through the Malacca Strait choke point. Also, there was concern over the long haul through the Indonesian archipelago and the South China Sea. Recently, Indian submarine activity has been detected in the Malacca Strait approaches. Considering the fraught situation between India and China in the Himalayas, China’s program seems justified.

Placing the violence in Rakhine state into context, it must be recognised that there are vested powerful economic interests involved.  Land-grabbing in Rakhine and globally is endemic when major infrastructure projects are planned. In 2011, Myanmar enacted political and economic reforms to encourage foreign investment in the country. Shortly afterwards, in 2012, violent attacks against the Rohingya commenced concurrent with Chinese and Korean interests acquiring timber, mineral and agricultural assets in the region.

The recently commissioned oil & gas pipe lines by CNPC will benefit Myanmar through transit fees, energy revenues and  satellite industries springing up around this energy hub, serviced by a deep water port and eventually, a rail link into China. There will be little benefit for locals. The construction and commissioning has involved forced land acquisition, unsatisfactory compensation, environmental degradation and an influx of foreign workers. The importance and vulnerability of the project is illustrated by the concentration of military depots deployed along the pipelines. (Figure 1)  The concentration of refugee camps, distant from the violence in the north, around the oil and gas coastal infrastructure    is indicative of corralling and a subsequent relocation program. (Figure 3)

Refugee Camps
FIG. 3   RAKHINE REFUGEE CAMPS.   KYANKPYU (KYAUKPYU) CLOSE TO OIL/GAS TERMINAL  (Rohingya-American Society)

 

In 2015, the Myanmar government revoked the citizenship of many Rohingya ensuring forced removal could be facilitated.
(The Conversation, September 2017)

Such has been domestic outrage at the exploitation of Burmese resources and increasing Chinese influence during and following the completion of the energy installations, that a long-planned $20 billion Chinese rail link between Kunmin and the port of Kyankpyu (Kyaukpyu ) has been delayed. In this regard, the Chinese ambassador recently made two interesting announcements: “unrest in Rakhine is an internal affair and the work of the security forces is justified” and “the Myanmar government assistance to the displaced people is welcome and China will donate $147 million toward this work”. (Reuters & Hindustan Times 17 September) This donation could well be an encouragement to the Myanmar government to expedite approval for the rail link. Compounding the violence against the Rohingya, the coastal region of Rakhine is increasing in strategic and commercial importance with both India and China seeking to exploit the economic potential of the region. To this end the Myanmar government has a vested interest in clearing the land (depopulation plus scorched earth) in order to encourage foreign investment. (The Conversation, 12 September 2017)


SILENCE IS GOLDEN
Myanmar.
The silence of Aung San Suu Kyi is understandable. The current violence in Rakhine is not simply due to ethnic or religious animosity. This ethnic cleansing is generated by a desire for economic and industrial development. In previous decades all industrialised countries have forcibly ‘relocated’ or killed indigenous people to further their own economic or strategic imperatives. Unfortunately Myanmar is in the 21st century’s spotlight. Developing nations in the 19th and 20th centuries, however, have been able to develop their economies prior to the instant news cycle.  This problem cannot be solved by Aung San Suu Kyi or General Min Aung Haiang, Chief of Armed Forces. There are about 1.1 million Rohingya – nearly half must be in Bangladesh or Myanmar refugee concentration camps. If the International Community will not provide relocation then the situation might subside into silent exhausted hatred, with the rump of the Rohingya moved away from valuable coastal areas.

Australia.
At a ‘working’ lunch in New York on the 18th September 2017, the Australian Foreign Minister spoke on the violence in Rakhine. (Parliament of Australia Briefs)  Condemned in equal amounts were the ARSA attacks on police posts and the military for their attacks on the Rohingya. The Minister noted “something was wrong and called for a cessation of hostilities”. (Naive in the extreme!!!).
The Minister further noted that Australia had donated $65 million to alleviate suffering. (Little is solved by only throwing money at a problem!!!) All good motherhood stuff, but it was a speech of no moment. There was no mention of unrest due to foreign investment, dispossession or environmental damage. There was no suggested solution; a capitulation to an inevitable.  Unfortunately our ‘national’ hands are tied. Australia can say nothing to jeopadise our coal, iron ore and tourism exports but Australia must, perforce, inevitably permit a perceptible colonisation of Australia’s higher education instituions.

As Napoleon Bonaparte famously noted: “China is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she awakes she will move the world”.

Current Affairs Flash Points   towardsthefinalhour.com                          John Hill      Email: lurgashall@westnet.com.au

 

DARWIN – A CHINESE PORT & CHOKE POINTS July 2017

 

 

Sea Power
PROTECTING CHOKE POINTS (thediplomat.com)

DARWIN – A CHINESE PORT                                                                          China has expressed concern over the Strait of Malacca as a vunerable choke point for its energy supplies from the Middle East oilfields. In the near future two strategic straits may enter maritime discussions, the Torres Strait and the Bering Strait.                                The 99 year lease of Darwin port to  Landbridge, a Chinese company, by the Northern Territory government has now acquired an added significance. Darwin is well placed for Chinese authorities to monitor and provide services to commercial and other shipping using the choke points of the Lombok and Torres Straits and the developing oil fields in the Timor Sea. Both these straits are used by the West Australian iron ore trade to China and the by vessels bound for east Asian ports and North America.                                    Darwin could well become a valuable strategic pendant hanging of the ‘string of pearls’ within the One Belt One Road Chinese expansion policy

 

Lombok-Torres}
MALACCA, LOMBOK & TORRES STRAITS (csba-airsea- battle.jpg)

CHOKE POINTS & MARITIME TRADE                                                    Choke points are critical to the protection of maritime trade routes. With  China expressing concern on Indian navy surveillance of its military vessels in the Malacca Strait the increasing importance of the Lombok and Torres Straits are becoming apparent. The Torres Strait is the only direct route between the Indian and Pacific Oceans and is nominally under the control of the United Nations Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the navigable channel for commercial shipping is 800m wide and 13m deep. This constitutes a navigational and stategic choke point. Control of choke points in times of international tension or hostilities is vital for the preservation of national interests. Examples of srategic choke points are: the Danish Strait into the Baltic Sea, the Straits of Dover into the North Sea, the Strait of Gibralter into the Mediterranean , the Gulf of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf, the Malacca Strait into the South China Sea. The Lombok and Torres Straits are now becoming increasingly important as safe maritime passages, as a consequence military build up will follow. Those with vested interests  are Australia, Indonesia and China.

 

China
THE WORLD ACCORDING TO CHINA. ARCTIC TRADE ROUTES  (Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration)

As an extension to this scenario the Bering Strait between the United States and Russia is looming as a choke point with China very much ‘The Third Man’. Commercial shipping has doubled over the past five years and will steadily increase as the Arctic ice cap melts to create wider, safer seaways. China is developing trade routes west to Europe and east to Canada and the United States. Unfortunately Australia is situated far to the east distant from the trading hubs, but could become a way point for oil imports to China from the Persian Gulf.

John Hill,  lurgashall@westnet.com.au                                                       Current Affairs Flash Points,   towardsthefinalhour.com

 

NORTH KOREA – Spectre of the Cold War

 

Missile
Missile on Parade (scmp.com)

North Korea – Spectre of the Cold War
 Comments

Justice Michael Kirby addressed the Sydney Institute on the 21st June dealing with North Korea’s human rights record including comment on the case of Mr O F Warmbier. The ensuing discussion, while relevant to the specific issue, was unable to articulate a solution to the current geopolitical situation.

The overarching problem is the nature of the North Korean regime and the nuclear threat it poses. The Cold War between the Warsaw Pact and NATO (1945-90) did not erupt into a nuclear holocaust because NATO maintained an around-the-clock airborne nuclear armed vigil. It was a case of mutual deterrence . If the Soviet Union had released ICBMs, major Russian cities would have been annihilated by incoming NATO weapons.

Today a comparable situation is emerging should North Korea direct missiles towards American interests or South Korea it would probably be neutralised by airborne and submarine-based ballistic missiles.

America is in the difficult situation should a definite immediate threat become manifest. There would be a retaliation that would have to, simultaneously, destroy the armaments along the ‘demilitarised zone’ and identifiable missile launch sites. The urgent problem is how to prevent North Korea progressing to perfecting its delivery system. To expect China to accomplish this is to misunderstand the geopolitical situation. Although China supports the United Nations sanctions on North Korea, it does not push too hard  due to concern over regime instability that could precipitate millions of refugees crossing the border into China. Furthermore, North Korea’s  nuclear ambitions are partially diverting America from China’s increasing hegemony in the East and South China Seas. A wild card into this situation is that America might reach a clandestine agreement with China on the 9 Dash Line in return for neutralising North Korea’s nuclear delivery threat. This arrangement might be considered in conjunction with negotiating a more balanced trading relationship that would boost American export industries.

Lessons from the 1962 Cuban missile crisis could be useful. China, as a proxy Russia,  might convince North Korea, as a proxy Cuba, to dismantle its nuclear capability under supervision, in return for development funds and a guarantee of national security. A sweetener for China might be that America would withdraw its B52 nuclear bombers from the region. Decisions would also involve Japan. North Korea is no Cuba but a ‘defuse’ mechanism might lie in this logic.

Missiles (smh.com)
Surface to Air Missiles. (smh.com)

A frontal attack poses an unacceptable threat for America. To bring North Korea to nuclear impotence would require a simultaneously stepped military assault:

  • stealth bombers must destroy anti-aircraft missile systems and command centres;
  • the virtually instantaneous destruction of thousands of artillery pieces along the DMZ trained on Seoul and nearby cities harbouring some 24 million souls;
  • the  massing of an invasion fleet that could not be hidden from China or North Korea causing the latter to consider a pre-emptive strike.
Artillery (netnews.vn)
Massed Artillery (netnews.vn)

There may be members of the International Community that have hoped for a modified French Revolution (1789) or a Bolshevik Revolution (1917) or preferably a Soviet implosion (1991). However, these alternatives may fade in the light of new relationships being developed in East Asia.

The President of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, favours engagement with North Korea which could morph into a rapprochement between Pyongyang and Seoul. In addition there are deepening trading ties between China and South Korea. Should closer ties develop between the three nations there may be pressure on America to reduce its forces in South Korea. The Kim dynasty is only interested in its own survival not in the well being of the North Korean people. Ultimately, to ensure a safe haven, the current ruling elite might be accepted in China or be ensconced in an enclave in North Korea. Pure conjecture!!

Should the three East Asian nations form a closer association, then America might need to rethink its ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy and southern members of the ANZUS Alliance may have to review their relationship with East Asian nations.

JOHN HILL                                                                                                                                    Current Affairs Flash Points                                                                                                  towardsthefinalhour.com                                                                                                         lurgashall@westnet.com.au